000 AXNT20 KNHC 182343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/Monsoon Trough... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 05N16W to 05N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N24W to 06N32W to 04N51W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 17W and 30W...and from 04N to 09N between 36W and 51W. ...Discussion... Gulf of Mexico... Generally westerly flow aloft noted on water vapor imagery over much of the Gulf coupled with weak low-level moisture convergence associated with a surface trough analyzed from 25N91W to a weak 1012 mb low near 30N88W is supporting isolated showers and tstms across portions of the eastern Gulf in the vicinity of 27N85W and farther west off the coast of Mexico near 23N97W and off the coast of Texas in the vicinity of Corpus Christi. These areas of convection precede a stationary front analyzed across southern Mississippi...Louisiana...and coastal Texas. The front is forecast to remain along the coastal plain and near-shore waters dissipating gradually through Thursday. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh E-SE return flow is expected across western portions of the basin through Friday with the next weak frontal boundary forecast to emerge off the southwest Louisiana and Texas coast Friday afternoon and quickly become stationary once again along 30N through the weekend. Caribbean Sea... A relatively strong surface ridge prevails across the central North Atlc anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 35N33W. The associated ridge axis extends from the high southwest to the NE Caribbean producing a strengthened pressure gradient across central portions of the basin resulting in strong to near gale trades generally S of 16N between 68W and 78W. Otherwise... moderate to fresh trades are occurring elsewhere across portions of the eastern and far western Caribbean. Most of the convection this evening is confined across portions of Central America and the adjacent coastal waters of Costa Rica and Panama. In addition...peak daytime heating and instability continues to support scattered showers and tstms across central and eastern Cuba this evening. ...Hispaniola... Mid-level ridging has weakened slightly...however fair weather prevails across the island as dry NW flow aloft prevails this evening. Moderate to fresh breeze conditions are expected across the adjacent coastal waters of the Caribbean Sea and Atlc Ocean. Atlantic Ocean... A mid-level shortwave trough is moving NE over the SW North Atlc noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 33N73W. The shortwave supports a 1010 mb low centered off the coast of the Carolinas near 33N76W and the associated cold front extending from the low to the southern Georgia coast near Savannah. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring well to the south and east of the low and front from 23N to 28N W of 73W and from 28N to 32N between 69W and 76W. Otherwise...a broad area of high pressure prevails across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 35N33W with mostly fair weather conditions expected. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN