000 AXNT20 KNHC 181705 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Near gale to gale-force winds are forecast to continue today over eastern portion of the area of Agadir. During the next 24 hours, gale force winds are expected again over the area of Agadir and also over Canarias. Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 09N13W to 05N24W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 05N36W to the South America coast near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 NM south of the monsoon trough between 09W and 20W and within 100 NM north of the ITCZ between 35W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A shortwave upper-level trough is over southern Texas and northeast Mexico generating scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of 23N and W of 92W. To the east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 30N88W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low to 25N91W. Isolated moderate convection is observed along and in the vicinity of these features. Scatterometer data depicts a gentle to moderate easterly flow across the majority of the basin except near the surface low and trough over the northeast Gulf. During the next 24 hours, expect for the upper-level trough to move east enhancing convection across the northern half of the basin. The surface low will move northeast while weakening. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface ridge that prevails across the central and east Atlantic extends southwest reaching the Caribbean basin. The pressure gradient generated by the combination of this ridge with the low pressure across northern Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh trades across the area mainly west of 77W. There is also an area of moderate to fresh winds observed in scatterometer data and latest surface observations across the waters of the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Abundant low-level moisture is been transported by the trades generating isolated convection across the basin. The proximity of the monsoon trough currently extending over Panama and Costa Rica, is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms affecting the waters south of 11N between 76W-84W. Expect a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon hours due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shortwave upper-level trough extends across the west Atlantic supporting moderate convection mainly north of 25N and west of 74W. To the east, a broad area of high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, centered near 35N32W. The pressure gradient generated by this high pressure and a low pressure centered over northern Africa is generating gale force winds across the far east atlantic waters mainly north of 30N. PLease refer to the Special Features section for more details. During the next 24 hours, expect for the upper-level shortwave to move east with convection. A cold front will move across the W Atlantic enhancing convection/winds/seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA