000 AXNT20 KNHC 181113 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W along 7N15W to 5N20W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N30W 4N45W to inland over South America near 2N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75 NM of a line from 7N38W to 5N46W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are from 3N-7N east of 18W to across the Prime Meridian and within 45 nm of a line from 6N32W to 7N37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A shortwave upper trough extends from Georgia across the Florida peninsula to Grand Bahama Island generating across the east Gulf scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 23N east of 88W. A second shortwave upper trough is over central Texas to northeast Mexico generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms inland and west of line from central Louisiana near 30N92W to northeast Mexico near 25N97W. A fast-moving surface trough extends from 27N88W to 23N93W. A weak surface ridge covers the far east Gulf anchored in the west-central Atlantic. Weak surface ridge will maintain southeast return flow over the Gulf through the end of the week. A weak frontal boundary along the northern Gulf coast will stall today then dissipate Thursday. The next front will enter the Gulf Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... West to northwest flow aloft dominates the Caribbean this morning. Isolated showers are possible over the southwest Caribbean south of line from Nicaragua near 12N84W to Colombia near 10N76W. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds primarily over the Gulf of Honduras and the central Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. HISPANIOLA... Skies have cleared across the island this morning. Moisture will remain limited through the end of the week, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A shortwave upper trough extends from Georgia across the Florida peninsula to Grand Bahama Island generating scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms across the far west Atlantic north of 25N between 74W-80W and across southern Florida between Lake Okeechobee and the upper Florida Keys. This activity is enhanced by an upper ridge that extends from Hispaniola over the west Atlantic to beyond 32N66W. A weakening stationary front extends into the central Atlantic near 32N52W to 31N56W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high southwest of the Azores and a weaker 1028 mb high near 33N51W extending a ridge axis southwest over the far east Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front will move across the northern waters of the west Atlantic today then stall Thursday and Friday as it weakens. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW