000 AXNT20 KNHC 180535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 18 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 10N14W to 5N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 3N30W 3N43W then across the equator and inland over South America near 51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 NM along coast Liberia Africa west of 10W to the border of Sierra Leone. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 3N-6N east of 17W to the Prime Meridian and from 4N-7N between 30W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A shortwave upper trough extends from Alabama across the northeast Gulf of Mexico to the Florida Keys. An outflow boundary extends from 26N89W along 24N84W to the Florida Keys near 25N81W. This is giving the the east Gulf scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms east of 88W. A second shortwave upper trough is over west Texas to northeast Mexico generating scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms inland and within 120 NM along the coast of Texas south of Galveston. A weak surface ridge covers the far east Gulf anchored in the west Atlantic. This weak surface ridge will shift east tonight as a weak cold front approaches the north gulf and then stalls Wednesday and dissipates through Thursday. A surface ridge over the west Atlantic will build south-southwest over the north Gulf Thursday night and Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Northwest to west flow aloft dominates the Caribbean tonight. The remnants of a diurnal surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is generating Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms inland with scattered showers over the northwest Caribbean from 20N-21.5N west of 85W. Isolated showers are possible over the southwest Caribbean south of line from Nicaragua near 14N84W to Colombia near 10N76W. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds primarily over the Gulf of Honduras and the central Caribbean through Friday. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. HISPANIOLA... Lingering moisture and possible isolated showers remain across the island tonight. Moisture will remain limited through Friday but afternoon showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper ridge extends from Hispaniola over the west Atlantic to beyond 32N68W with a surface ridge bridging a weak stationary front that extends through 32N56W along 31N66W to 32N78W to inland over Georgia near 32N81W. The shortwave upper trough over the east Gulf of Mexico is generating scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N west of 76W to inland over the SE CONUS including the Florida peninsula. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high southwest of the Azores. The west Atlantic surface ridge will shift eastward through Friday. A weak cold front will move across the northern waters of the west Atlantic Wednesday and Wednesday night then across the north central Atlantic Thursday through Friday before stalling Friday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ PAW