000 AXNT20 KNHC 171739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale...Winds are forecast to reach gale force over the next over the eastern portion of the area of Agadir. Within the next 24 hours, near gale to gale force winds are still expected over Agadir, but also spreading over the areas of Tarfaya and Canarias. Please refer to the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 08N13W to 05N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 00N49W. Isolated moderate convection prevails along and within 100 NM to the north of both boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The combination of a shortwave upper-level trough with low-level convergence is supporting an area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the northeast Gulf waters mainly north of 25n and east 89w. At the surface, a trough was analyzed from 26N89W to 30N86W. The remainder of the basin is convection-free at this time. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly flow across the western half of the basin while a gentle to moderate southerly flow prevails across the eastern half. Expect during the next 24 hours for the convection across the ne Gulf to move east towards the Florida peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... The surface ridge that prevails across the tropical Atlantic extends southwest reaching the Caribbean waters. A tight pressure gradient is generated by the combination of this ridge with lower pressures across the northern portion of South America. With this, strong to near gale force winds will pulse each morning across the south-central Caribbean waters mainly south of 17N between 70W-78W during the next 48 hours. The proximity of the monsoon trough over Panama is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean waters south of 12N between 78W-84W. Low-level moisture transported by the moderate to fresh trades is generating isolated showers across the remainder of the basin. Expect for a similar weather pattern to prevail during the next 24 hours. HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect for isolated showers to develop in the afternoon hours due to the trades combined with daytime heating and orographic lifting. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level shortwave trough is moving east across the far east Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula supporting cloudiness and isolated convection across the w Atlantic mainly west of 75W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N73W to 30N64W with no convection. A broad area of high pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin centered by a 1034 mb surface high near 36N34W. During the next 24 hours, expect for the shortwave trough to continue moving east reaching the w Atlantic and enhancing convection. High pressure will prevail elsewhere. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA