000 AXNT20 KNHC 170548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to persist to near gale to gale force over the next 24 hours near the African coast for the areas of Agadir and the north portion of Tarfaya. Near gale conditions are expected for the Canarias. Please see the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and into the east Tropical Atlantic near 9N13W to 6N17W where the ITCZ begins and continues to 5N29W where a surface trough disrupts the flow. The ITCZ resumes west of the trough near 4N33W and continues along 2N41W to inland over South America near 1N49W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 1N-5N east of 7W across the Prime Meridian, north of 4N to inland over Africa between 10W-14W, and from 3N-6N between 36W-41W. Surface trough extends from 8N28W to 3N31W with clusters of scattered moderate convection from 4N-7N between 29W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A shortwave upper trough extends from the middle/lower Mississippi Valley across the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. An upper ridge is to the east extending from the northwest Caribbean across west Cuba and the Florida peninsula to over the SE CONUS providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms from 26N to inland over the north Gulf coast between 86W-94W. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that have developed over Cuba have moved offshore into the Straits of Florida south of 25N east of 85W. A surface trough extends along the Texas coast from the Louisiana boundary to just south of Corpus Christi. A surface ridge covers the east Gulf anchored by a 1026 mb high off the North Carolina coast and a weaker 1024 mb high over Ohio. The surface ridge will persist through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper ridge extends from over Central America across the northwest Caribbean and Cuba into the east Gulf of Mexico and west Atlantic. A weak shortwave upper trough extends from the Turks and Caicos across the Windward Passage to near 14N77W. a surface trough is analyzed from Colombia near 9N75W along the north coast of Panama to 10N81W then over Nicaragua near 12N84W and over Honduras to near 15N85W. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 90 NM on both side of the trough west of 81W to inland over Nicaragua and Honduras. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that developed inland over Cuba have moved north into the Straits of Florida leaving scattered showers across the island east of 81W. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the Caribbean through Thursday. HISPANIOLA... Lingering isolated showers remain across the island west of 70W tonight. The weak shortwave upper trough that extends from the Turks and Caicos across the Windward Passage will shift eastward and extend across the Virgin Islands by Tuesday afternoon. Moisture will be limited through Thursday but afternoon showers and thunderstorms could still develop due to the strong easterly trade winds coupled with daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large upper low is over the Canadian Maritimes supporting a weakening cold front that extends into the west Atlantic near 32N62W along 30N65w to 29N70W where it dissipates to 29N75W. A surface trough extends from 28N66W along 27N70W to 25N73W. Isolated showers and possible isolated thunderstorms are north of 25N between 60W-73W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored well north of the discussion area. The cold front will continue moving east into the central Atlantic by Tuesday. The surface trough will lift northwest and dissipate tonight. A second cold front will move across the northern waters Wednesday through Thursday night. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW