000 AXNT20 KNHC 162301 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning on Meteo-France outlook...Winds are forecast to near gale to gale between 17/1200 UTC and 18/1200 UTC along the African coast over the area of Agadir. Please see the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the east Tropical Atlantic near 07N12W to 05N17W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N17W to 06N24W where a surface trough is embedded. The surface trough extends from 09N24W to 02N26W. The intertropical convergence zone axis then resumes from 06N27W to 03N40W to near the coast of South America at 02N51W. No significant convection is present near these features. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A deep and sharp upper level trough is moving through the United States Great Plains states, extending southward to across eastern Texas and now into the west central Gulf of Mexico near 21N96W. Plentiful moisture is moving out ahead of the trough with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms possible to the north of 25N between 89W and 95W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible from 21N to 25N between 90W and 94W. The upper trough will continue to shift eastward tonight and Tuesday with associated convection out ahead of it also moving eastward. A stationary front is lingering at the surface from northern Florida near 29N83W to southeast Louisiana near 30N90W. This front is forecast to dissipate tonight. A weak diurnal trough is forecast to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each evening, drifting westward into the southwest Gulf at night. Otherwise, high pressure ridging extending northeast of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh southeast return flow across the basin through at least the next 48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical jet is helping to advect moisture off to the northeast-east from the Dominican Republic to across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Mainly zonal westerly flow aloft dominates the basin. The basin is generally void of any significant surface features, except in the western Caribbean where a trough extends from 1008 MB low pressure over northwest Colombia near 08.5N76W to along the northern coast of Panama at 10N80W and across the remainder of Central America to eastern Honduras at 15.5N85W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nautical miles either side of the trough, with very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning possible across these areas. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between the low over northwest Colombia and high pressure ridging located to the north-northeast of the basin will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. HISPANIOLA... A middle to upper level trough is moving across the island. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the trough with the assistance of daytime heating, but what little activity that there is should diminish shortly after sunset. Isolated convection will be possible again on Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from east of Bermuda near 32N63W to 29.5N74W, where it then continues as a weak stationary front to just north of Daytona Beach, Florida at 29N81W. A surface trough is located to the southeast of the front reaching from near 28N70W to the southeast Bahamas at 22N76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located to the north of 24N east of the boundaries to 60W. The front will continue to weaken tonight, dissipating tuesday into tuesday night as high pressure ridging located to the east rebuilds in. Model guidance indicates a weak surface low pressure area forming to the east of the Georgia/South Carolina border near 31N79.5W late Tuesday night, which will move to the northeast through Wednesday. This low will likely drag a weak cold front to its south into the waters to the north of 28N through the middle of the week. Otherwise, the eastern Atlantic high pressure will dominate the remainder of the Atlantic, with mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds expected across the waters to the east of 60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ JLewitsky