000 AXNT20 KNHC 161812 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning on Meteo-France outlook...Winds are forecast to near gale to gale between 17/1200 UTC and 18/1200 UTC along the African coast over the area of Agadir. Please see the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions- meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the east Tropical Atlantic near 07N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 06N23W where a surface trough disrupts the flow. The surface trough extends from 09N23W to 2N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 03N30W to the coast of South America near 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from Cape Canaveral Florida near 29N81W to SE Louisiana near 30N89W. The front is void of precipitation. 10-20 kt E to SE surface flow is over the Gulf south of the front. Strongest surface gradient and winds are over the western Gulf west of 90W. In the upper levels, a short wave trough is over the western Gulf with axis along 98W. Upper level diffluence east of the wave axis is producing scattered moderate convection from 20N-32N between 90W- 96W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the front to weaken, however, the upper level short wave trough will move east and increase convection over the eastern Gulf and Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low is centered over north Colombia near 09N76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N-10N between 75W-80W. Similar convection is over the SW Caribbean from 09N- 13N between 80W-85W. More scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over east Nicaragua and east Honduras between 83W-85W. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of north Colombia. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for a surface trough over the Atlantic to advect showers into the Windward Islands. Also expect an upper level short wave to produce convection over the Yucatan Peninsula and the NW Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Skies have cleared across most of the island today with some high clouds moving across the southern portion of the Dominican Republic. Expect possible showers in the evening hours due to daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic from 31N70W to Cape Canaveral Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A prefrontal trough extends from 28N71W to the Bahamas at 23N74W. A 1034 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 35N36W producing fair weather. Of note in the upper levels, a short wave trough is over the western Atlantic with axis along 70W. Upper level diffluence east of the wave axis is producing isolated moderate convection north of 24N between 61W-70W. Expect in 24 hours for the front to move east to 31N60W with showers. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ Formosa