000 AXNT20 KNHC 161157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to persist to near gale to gale force over the next 24 hours near the African coast for the area of Agadir. Please see the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the east Tropical Atlantic near 14N17W to 11N19W where a surface trough disrupts the flow. The surface trough extends from 10N21W to 3N21W. The ITCZ extends from 5N25W along 3N34W 3N47W to inland over South America near 3N51W. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are north of 2N to the southwest coast of Africa east of 4W across the Prime Meridian and within 90/120 NM either side of the ITCZ between 25W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A large upper low is over the east Canada and the NE CONUS into the west Atlantic north of 30N. This upper low is supporting a cold front that extends from the west Atlantic across Florida then dips south into the Gulf of Mexico just south of Naples to 26N85W where it dissipates to 27N87W. Mostly dry air covers the east Gulf limiting any shower activity with this front. A shortwave upper trough is inland over Mexico with a second upper trough from central Texas to northeast Mexico. This is inducing an upper ridge from the east Bay of Campeche to the lower Mississippi Valley. This upper ridge is providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms west of a line from Louisiana near 29N30W to Veracruz Mexico. The cold front will continue to dissipate over the Gulf through today. A surface ridge over the SE CONUS will shift east Tuesday and Wednesday allowing return flow over the west Gulf to spread across the remainder of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A low amplitude upper trough covers western Caribbean west of 78W. A surface trough is over the northwest Caribbean extending from 19N85W to inland over Honduras to near 15N86W with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms from 17N-19N west of 83W to the trough axis. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are in the southwest Caribbean southwest of a line from Nicaragua near 12N84W along 12N81W to Panama near 9N80W. A weak surface trough is over Haiti and the Windward Passage extending from the Turks and Caicos near 22N72W to 18N74W. An upper ridge anchored east of Trinidad covers the remainder of the Caribbean drawing upper moisture from over Central America to across the east portion of the Dominican Republic, the Mona Passage, and western Puerto Rico. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies this morning. Surface ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the Caribbean through midweek with the strongest winds over the central Caribbean. HISPANIOLA... Skies have cleared across most of the island this morning with some high clouds moving across the far east portion of the Dominican Republic. Near zonal westerly flow aloft will move across the island later this morning with an upper trough moving across the island by early Thursday. Lingering moisture will persist through midweek and could generate showers/afternoon thunderstorms each afternoon/evening through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large upper low is over the east Canada and the NE CONUS into the west Atlantic north of 30N. This upper low is supporting a cold front that extends into the west Atlantic near 32N70W to 29N78W where it continues as a warm front inland over Florida near Daytona Beach to 17N81.5W where it again becomes cold to just south of Naples and into the Gulf of Mexico. A weak shortwave upper trough is supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N65W along 27N71W to the Bahamas near 23N73W. Clusters of scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are within 120/150 NM east of the surface trough. A second weak shortwave upper trough is supporting a second surface trough that extends from 28N48W along 25N49W to 22N51W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored well north of the discussion area. The cold front will continue moving east through today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through midweek. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW