000 AXNT20 KNHC 160539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to persist to near gale force over the next 24 hours near the African coast for the areas of Agadir and Canarias. Please see the Meteo- France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo- marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and enters the east Tropical Atlantic near 13N17W to 12N18W where a surface trough disrupts the flow. The surface trough extends from 11N18W to 3N19W. The ITCZ extends from 6N21W along 5N28W 2N45W to South America near 3N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 1N-5N east of 3W across the Prime Meridian and within 180 NM south of the ITCZ between 23W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A large upper low is over the E Canada and the NE CONUS but flattens out north of 33N. This upper low is supporting a cold front that extends from the west Atlantic across Florida near Titusville then dips south to Fort Myers into the Gulf of Mexico to 27N85W where it begins to dissipate as a stationary front along 29N89W to over Texas near Galveston. Mostly dry air covers the east Gulf limiting any shower activity with this front. A shortwave upper trough is inland over Mexico and is inducing an upper ridge from the Bay of Campeche to the lower Mississippi Valley. This upper ridge is providing diffluence aloft to generate scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms north of 22N west of 92W. The remainder of the Gulf is under clear skies tonight. The front over the Gulf will dissipate by Monday. High pressure will then dominated the Gulf through midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... A low amplitude upper trough covers western Caribbean west of 78W generating scattered showers/thunderstorms within 60 NM of line from 10N80W to inland over Nicaragua near 12N84W with clusters of isolated showers/thunderstorms dotting the area from 15N-19N between 78W-85W. An upper ridge anchored east of Trinidad covers the remainder of the Caribbean drawing upper moisture from over Central America to across the Dominican Republic. Afternoon showers/thunderstorms that developed over Cuba and Hispaniola are beginning to dissipate for the night. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly clear skies tonight. A surface ridge will build across the west Atlantic inducing an increase in the easterly winds across the central Caribbean through midweek. HISPANIOLA... An upper ridge across the Caribbean is advecting upper moisture across the Dominican Republic tonight. Afternoon showers/ thunderstorms that developed across the island are beginning to dissipate leaving only isolated showers across the Dominican Republic. Near zonal westerly flow aloft will move across the island by early Monday with an upper trough moving across the island by early Thursday. Lingering moisture will persist through Monday evening and could generate showers/afternoon thunderstorms Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A large upper low is over the E Canada and the NE CONUS but flattens out north of 33N. This upper low is supporting a cold front that extends into the west Atlantic near 32N72W along 31N75W 29N79W to over Florida near Titusville. Isolated showers are possible within 90 NM east of the front north of 30N. A weak shortwave upper trough is supporting a surface trough that extends from 31N66W along 27N70W to the Bahamas near 23N73W. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms are from 24N-26N between 71W-73W with isolated showers within 90 nm east of the remainder of the trough axis. A second weak shortwave upper trough is supporting a second surface trough that extends from 27N48W along 21N49W to 18N55W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by a broad surface ridge anchored well north of the discussion area. The cold front will continue moving east through Monday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front through midweek. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW