000 AXNT20 KNHC 152316 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning...Winds are forecast to temporarily increase to gale force early tonight near the African coast for Agadir. Please see the Meteo-France high seas forecast that is listed under the following links: Marine, Bulletins Expertises, Grand Large, Metarea II, or on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/ bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends over western Africa and reaches the coast near 12N17W. A surface trough is off the coast of western Africa from 12N17W to 02N18w. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N20W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 15W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is also within 120 NM north of the ITCZ between 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Ocala, Florida across the northern Gulf through 28N90W to the Texas coast near 28N96W. Limited convection is currently associated with the front. A deep upper level trough is located to the west over the U.S. Rocky Mountain region. Convection is developing ahead of the trough over northern Mexico and across Texas, now spreading eastward into the coastal waters with the area under upper level diffluence. The cold front will weaken as it moves south- southeast, dissipating Monday. Overall, fairly benign weather conditions will continue for the next 48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough is across the western Caribbean, with scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of it across the basin south of 13N and W of 79W. A 1006 mb low pressure center is located over northern Colombia near 08N73W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 240 NM of the low, including across northwest Venezuela. This low combined with high pressure ridging north-northeast of the basin, is resulting in a tight pressure gradient across mainly the central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trades in this area. The pressure gradient is forecast to continue to tighten with the area of fresh to strong trades expanding through the early part of the week, even increasing to near gale force northwest of the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin for the next 48 hours. HISPANIOLA... A tropical jet is advecting deep tropical moisture across the island. This plentiful moisture combined with daytime heating is helping to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island, however, most of the activity should diminish after sunset. Similar conditions are likely on Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the western Atlantic 32N74W to northern Florida near 29N81W. Isolated showers are possible ahead of the front. This front is already weak and it will continue to weaken as it shifts to the southeast. High pressure is forecast to build in the wake of the front through the early part of the week. A surface trough is moving into northern South America extending from 10N54W to 03N54W. Otherwise high pressure ridging controls the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ JLewitsky