000
AXNT20 KNHC 152033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE ITCZ THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF
AGADIR, NEAR COAST, EARLY TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS:
MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR
ON THE WEBSITE: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE
BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...      

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND REACHES THE
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF
WESTERN AFRICA FROM 11N16W TO 03N17W.  THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO 03N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 17W-21W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-
29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AS OF 1500 UTC, A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA
NEAR 30N81W TO SOUTH OF HOUSTON TEXAS NEAR 29N95W.  RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM 24N- 30N
BETWEEN 95W-102W.  THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF
95W.  FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 27N. EXPECT
IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF 70W, OVER PUERTO RICO, AND
HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         
      
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO ST.
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N40W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 69W-74W.  EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
Formosa