000 AXNT20 KNHC 151116 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST UNTIL 16/1200 UTC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR...AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 07N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N17W TO 04N20W TO 02N35W AND 02N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGHS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 09W AND 21W...AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16W/17W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 10N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS JUST BEFORE ENTERING THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH U.S.A. GULF COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N91W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR TO MVFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MVFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS NEAR ALICE AND CORPUS CHRISTI. LIFR IN CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...GREATER VISIBILITY NOW IN PUNTA GORDA...AFTER IFR VISIBILITY OF LESS THAN 2 MILES FOR THE NEXT- TO-LAST OBSERVATION. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...FROM 84W IN NICARAGUA EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. THE AREA THAT IS COVERED BY THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION INCLUDES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY RIGHT AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SWITCHING TO NORTHEAST...AND THEN EASTERLY...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE IS IN THE VICINITY. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO 31N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W FROM 26N TO 30N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 29N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 31N37W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE TROUGH WESTWARD TO 60N FROM 20N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 70W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N21W. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT