000 AXNT20 KNHC 141803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 05N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N32W TO 03N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 00W-15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N81W TO 28N86W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S TEXAS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 98W-101W. OUTSIDE OF THE GULF COLD FRONT...10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH SEAS 1-2 FT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 82W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER N FLORIDA TO MOVE E AND DISSIPATE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TEXAS FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO E TEXAS ALONG 30N WITH CONVECTION OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA... PANAMA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 74W-82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS S OF 17N AND E OF 78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 31N78W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. THE FRONT IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N50W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N41W TO 28N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N24W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 25N BETWEEN 67W-71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA