000 AXNT20 KNHC 141022 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NEAR GALE TO GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR AND CANARIAS DURING TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 04N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N32W TO 02N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS WITH BASE REACHING S TO GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W W TO THE COAST OF SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LACKING CONVECTION BUT WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG IN ITS VICINITY AS INDICATED BY THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH IS FROM 22N93W TO 18N94W. A 1015 MB HIGH STALLS IN THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W...HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT GENTLE VARIABLE WIND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW BASIN WHERE MODERATE NE FLOW IS PRESENT. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER BASIN-WIDE AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL STALL AGAIN TODAY WHILE IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATE SUNDAY...LEAVING SURFACE HIGH PRES AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE ALOFT SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SAME REGIONS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND NE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COSTA RICA COASTLINE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW BASIN W OF 82W. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS S TO THE N-NE BASIN AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT WITH A LOW PRES CENTER OVER NW COLOMBIA TO GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS S OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 77W. LIGHT AND MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PULSE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH BECOMES STRONGER. HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ADVECTS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN WHILE ALOFT SW TO W FLOW ADVECTS SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SAME REGIONS. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS...ESPECIALLY NE OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE REGION N OF THE TROPICAL ATLC BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRES CENTERS N OF THE AREA. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE BASIN WHERE N TO NE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RESULT FROM A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THAT REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS