000 AXNT20 KNHC 131133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 14/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF... NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN...AGADIR AND CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 04N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N22W TO 03N36W AND 02N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 08N AND 16N. SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 01W AND 09W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W 25N93W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 20N TO 25N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR CONDITIONS...KEIR. IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF AND KMDJ. MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...LIFR IN EDINBURG. LIFR IN ALICE...KINGSVILLE...ROBSTOWN...IN VICTORIA...AND IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LOUISIANA...IFR IN NEW IBERIA. MVFR IN GALLIANO...IN SLIDELL...AND IN AREAS THAT ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI... MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...IFR IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. FLORIDA...IFR IN PARTS OF THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IN MILTON. MVFR IN PANAMA CITY. LIFR IN BROOKSVILLE. IFR AT THE MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE. MVFR IN SARASOTA. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 14N76W...AND BEYOND CENTRAL PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 75W/76W FROM 23N TO 28N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 9000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO...WITH THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF SOME SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND PURELY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N50W 29N55W 28N60W. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 32N08W...TO 20N28W 14N33W AND 08N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N50W 28N60W SURFACE TROUGH. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT