000 AXNT20 KNHC 130558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE 24 HOURS THAT FOLLOW THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 14/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE THREAT OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE TO LOCALLY GALE IN...AGADIR...TARFAYA... AND CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 07N18W AND 05N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N22W TO 04N35W 03N42W AND 03N49W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 11N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 07N AND 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...HAS DEVELOPED IN AN OVERALL BIGGER AREA OF COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE... FROM 25N NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N88W 26N91W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N SOUTHWARD. ...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR CONDITIONS...KGHB AND KEIR. IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KXIH. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KHHV...KGUL...KVAF...AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. IFR IN ALICE. MVFR IN BAY CITY. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. ELSEWHERE IN IOWA...AND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... VFR/NO CEILINGS. MVFR IN BROOKSVILLE AND AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 13N76W...AND BEYOND CENTRAL PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AFTER EARLIER ALREADY-DISSIPATED PRECIPITATION. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN GUADELOUPE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 26000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. LA ROMANA... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. PUNTA CANA... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. . THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO...WITH THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF SOME SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND PURELY ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 17N37W...AND 08N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N33W. ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N50W 22N55W 19N57W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N73W 26N75W 23N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT