000 AXNT20 KNHC 122338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE AREAS OFFSHORE OF NW AFRICA INCLUDING AGADIR...TARFAYA... AND CANARIAS ARE UNDER THE THREAT OF GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/ PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N21W TO 05N30W THEN RESUMES FROM 05N36W TO 03N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 07W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 08N30W TO 02N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 51W-53W WHERE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N50W TO 06N52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 86W-93W. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF FROM 25N93W TO 20N94W. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO SW GULF TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT...LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT IS ANTICIPATED. OVERALL...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD WHILE ENCOUNTERING A MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT...THEN WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING N-NE OF THE BASIN BUILDS IN...COMBINED WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... A DEEP LAYERED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND HELPING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE NE-E BUILDS IN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...STALLING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SAME AREA STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND-SHIFT...LITTLE IMPACT FROM THE FRONTS AND TROUGH ARE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN PRIMARILY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY