000 AXNT20 KNHC 112338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N16W TO 04N31W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N32W TO 02N32W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 05N34W TO 03N46W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N47W TO 00N48W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AGAIN FROM 03N49W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 10W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE FLOW. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS INLAND OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N95W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE FROM THE CENTER TO BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W. UPPER AIR MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND OVER TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE E GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 07N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND N COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S COAST OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA ...AND JAMAICA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM S OF 16N AND E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IS S OF HAITI NEAR 15N75W. SW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD E OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EASTERLIES. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO BOTH THE TRADEWINDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N68W TO 27N71W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 22N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 23N66W TO 19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THIS TROUGH. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N45W WITH FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW S OF HAITI IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N- 22N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH TO MOVE E TO 30N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA