000 AXNT20 KNHC 111805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE EAST TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 7N11W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W 4N28W 4N37W TO EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 3N46W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N48W TO 1N47W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N36W TO 5N37W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF 24W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 10W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CREATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF 22N WEST OF 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST ATLANTIC ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N96W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE GULF THU NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES EAST TEXAS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTHWEST GULF EARLY FRI, THEN EXIT THE GULF FRI NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE WEST CARIBBEAN WEST OF 79W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN EAST OF 73W. WEDGE BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES IS A NARROW UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS, OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA AND THE GULF OF URABA. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC IS DRAWING UPPER MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 66W-74W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N61W TO 13N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W. THIS IS LEAVING THE WEST CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON DUE THE AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA AND THE GULF OF URABA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THU NIGHT INTO FRI, BEFORE WEAKENING AND FLATTENING OUT BY FRI NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WEST CARIBBEAN NARROWS AS IT ENTERS THE WEST ATLANTIC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 31N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WEST ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N72W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM 27N80W ALONG 31N80W TO BEYOND 32N78W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N65W ALONG 24N70W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THEN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N67W TO 24N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N45W. THE WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THU BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA ON FRI. A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEST ATLANTIC THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW