000 AXNT20 KNHC 110545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 11 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N14W TO 05N21W AND 06N28W...04N33W AND 05N41W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28W/29W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 09N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS CLOSE TO THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N95W...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS AND BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 32N74W...INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KGLS. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...KVAF... KGUL...KHQI...AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN THE LOWER VALLEY FROM HARLINGEN WESTWARD. IFR IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA...MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...INCLUDING IN VICTORIA...AND BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IN GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/ PORT ARTHUR. MVFR FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES TO CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING EXPERIENCED IN GULF SHORES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE VISIBILITY REACHING 10 MILES DURING THE LAST OBSERVATION. FLORIDA...IFR IN CRESTVIEW. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N54W-TO-23N68W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N75W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N77W...AND SOUTHWARD BEYOND THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PANAMA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N65W TO 30N67W 26N70W AND 22N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 79W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BETWEEN 62W AND 75W...MOVING NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALSO FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.13 IN GUADELOUPE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 11/0000 UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA AT 11/0000 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE NEARBY. PUNTA CANA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 8000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE END OF DAY TWO. WESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. MORE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY TWO...DISSIPATING EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERLY WIND FLOW AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE EVENTUALLY WILL BUILD INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 27N28W...TO 19N40W 12N47W. THE TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS INLAND IN AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N65W-TO-22N71W SURFACE TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N48W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE 31N65W-22N71W SURFACE TROUGH AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT