000 AXNT20 KNHC 102356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N15W TO 05N27W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N28W TO 02N28W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 05N30W TO 05N40W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N41W TO 00N42W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AGAIN FROM 04N43W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NE GULF N OF 28N. ELSEWHERE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE GEORGIA COAST. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF S 27N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SE GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N...PANAMA ...AND N COLOMBIA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W. FURTHER S...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 72W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IS OVER HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO DRIFT W TOWARDS COSTA RICA. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD E OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EASTERLIES. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO BOTH THE TRADEWINDS AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF 80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N70W WITH FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N66W TO 27N69W TO 23N70W MOVING W. THE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N47W ALSO WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO AT 31N06W TO S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N15W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW OVER HAITI IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 20N- 22N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH TO MOVE E TO 30N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA