000 AXNT20 KNHC 101803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM 07N12W...CONTINUING TO 05N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N15W AND THEN EXTENDS TO 05N26W...IT CONTINUES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N30W TO 05N39W...THEN W OF A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH FROM 03N45W TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 21W AND 35W AND W OF 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRES CENTERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO THE FAR WESTERN GULF. LOW PRES ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO EXTEND S ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W ...THUS GENERATING A TIGHTER GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS WITHIN 260 NM OFF THE COASTLINE FROM TAMPICO TO MATAMOROS MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY THE LAST SCATTEROMETER PASS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AXIS FROM 23N93W TO 19N95W. FRESH SE FLOW IS E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WIND PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE EPAC WATERS BY SW FLOW CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SW AND NE BASIN WHILE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA. E OF THIS FEATURE...A RIDGE ALOFT GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 75W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG WITH LIFTING GENERATED BY THE LOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI AS INDICATED BY GOES LIGHTING DENSITY DATA. RIDGING ALOFT AND STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESS ANCHORED OFF THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND FROM S OF HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED...EXCEPT OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. OTHERWISE...MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC...ACROSS HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA. E OF THIS FEATURE...A RIDGE ALOFT GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT ALONG WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI AS INDICATED BY GOES LIGHTING DENSITY DATA. SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N61W TO NEAR 27N67W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO SURFACE TROUGH TO NE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN AN ELONGATED LOW AND RIDGING TO THE E SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF NE HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE AND OFF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT REMNANTS IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N13W TO 26N22W IN THE FAR NE ATLC WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W- NW AROUND THE SW N ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS