000 AXNT20 KNHC 100604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N15W. ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N15W TO 05N23W...04N25W TO 04N37W...04N39W...TO 01N50W ALONG THE COAST NEAR BRAZIL. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 09N SOUTHWARD. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24W/25W...CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 05N17W 05N26W 07N38W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ALONG THE ITCZ ALSO. PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER AREA THAT IS NEAR 30N74W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK..KGUL... AND KVQT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN WESLACO AND MCALLEN...AT THE NAVAL STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI. MVFR IN VICTORIA...PORT LAVACA...AND PALACIOS... IN BAY CITY AND IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...IN GALVESTON...AND IN BEAUMONT...AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. FROM THE REST OF LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 59W WESTWARD. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N62W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA...FROM 05N TO 10N/11N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF HAITI... AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF HISPANIOLA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W...TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N64W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N62W 29N59W BEYOND 32N57W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 10/0000 UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 6000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA... THUNDER AND FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AT 10/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...THUNDER AND FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA...VFR WITH FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...THUNDER AND FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE CUTTING ACROSS HAITI FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A TROUGH WILL COVER THE DAY FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 30N09W...TO THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N20W...AND 28N28W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N28W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 32N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 43W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 14N53W...TO 09N59W...NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N66W TO 28N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1019 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT