000 AXNT20 KNHC 092331 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N15W TO 04N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N24W TO 01N24W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH NEAR 04N25W TO 04N36W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N36W TO 01N37W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AGAIN FROM 04N39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 19W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE HIGH TO E TEXAS NEAR 30N94W. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE OTHER SE GULF STATES. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SURFACE SE FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE SE GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N BETWEEN 64W-74W. FURTHER S...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 72W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH SW FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD E OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EASTERLIES. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO BOTH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N70W WITH FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER E...A 1018 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N64W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N67W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND 31N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N48W ALSO WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MOROCCO AT 29N10W TO THE E ATLANTIC AT 25N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N16W ENHANCING THE SHOWERS N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ATLANTIC FRONT TO DISSIPATE TO A SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN RETROGRADE BACK TO THE W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA