000 AXNT20 KNHC 091758 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAY 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W...CONTINUING TO 06N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N14W AND THEN EXTENDS TO 04N21W...IT CONTINUES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 04N24W TO 04N34W...THEN W OF A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 04N38W TO 04N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 08N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W AND WITHIN 260 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO 94W IN THE GULF. LOW PRES ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO EXTEND S ACROSS MEXICO AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF...THUS GENERATING A TIGHTER GRADIENT THAT SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND N OF 25W W OF 90W. LIGHT TO MODERATE SE FLOW PREVAILS IN THE EASTERN GULF. MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE EPAC WATERS BY SW FLOW CONTINUE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WHILE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH WED...LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. A LOCALLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW FUNNELS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DUE TO HIGH PRES IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING IN PLACE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TUE. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. HISPANIOLA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING S TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND A STRONG SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN HAITI BETWEEN 71W AND 78W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LEAVING IN PLACE A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO A BASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 18N68W. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER BASIN W AND E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NE ATLC FROM 30N08W TO 25N21W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W- NW AROUND THE SW N ATLC RIDGE THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR