000 AXNT20 KNHC 090604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 09 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N12W TO 05N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N17W TO 04N22W 04N28W 02N38W 03N45W...AND TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 01N...TO 05N16W 06N26W 06N36W 06N45W 06N57W. ...DISCUSSION... ...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 62W WESTWARD... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 84W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...COVER THE REST OF THE AREA FROM 84W EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN THE AREA. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN IN CONROE FOR THE LAST OBSERVATION. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. ELSEWHERE IN LOUISIANA...AND FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W AND 84W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN HISPANIOLA TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 25N62W 20N63W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 5000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 6000 FEET...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...VFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE CUTTING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...OR DRIFTING AND RE-POSITIONING ITSELF JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL FORM HALFWAY THROUGH DAY ONE AND IT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...SENDING SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE MONA PASSAGE. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL START FROM THE SOUTH. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DURING DAY ONE...FIRST GIVING HISPANIOLA SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...AND THEN FINALLY WIND FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 30N09W...TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...28N20W...AND THEN DISSIPATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 31N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 43W EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N43W TO 10N60W...NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT...AND THE PERSISTENT WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT