000 AXNT20 KNHC 082347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 7N15W TO 5N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N29W 1N36W 2N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 46W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF E OF 87W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF N OF 23N E OF 95W ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR NW GULF N OF 27N W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH MON ALLOWING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG SE TO S RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE W GULF AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STRENGTHENS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 21N67W ACROSS THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 17N70W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 16N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W ACROSS PUERTO RICO/MONA PASSAGE ALONG 15N71W TO NW COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 14N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 65W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE W COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 11N E OF 78W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS W TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES PRODUCING FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE WINDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION AND IN THE LEE OF CUBA MON NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO FRONT THAT PASSED ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N67W ACROSS THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BEGIN DRIFTING W AS A SURFACE TROUGH MON THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 66W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND EXTENDING THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N60W ALONG 27N63W TO 21N67W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. A SHARP NARROW UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 19N61W TO BEYOND 32N54W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 210 NM OF LINE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 18N65W TO BEYOND 32N60W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC DIPS S TO 24N E OF 30W SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NW AFRICA THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N14W TO 29N27W THEN NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N33W. WEDGE BETWEEN THE ABOVE FRONTS IS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 35N47W. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BEGIN DRIFTING W AS A SURFACE TROUGH MON THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ALONG 29N/30N THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW