000 AXNT20 KNHC 081103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 09/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 05N15W AND 04N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N21W TO 04N30W 03N36W AND 02N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 49W AND 53W...NEAR THE COASTS AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... ...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 62W AND 90W... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 96W/97W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE REST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN THE AREA. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN ROCKPORT. ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS...AND FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 90W IN GENERAL. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N74W AND 13N77W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IT ENDS NEAR 17N72W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N72W 10N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N65W...WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...18N68W 16N69W 14N70W 13N72W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 2.22 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 17N74W AND 13N77W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IT ENDS NEAR 17N72W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N72W 10N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N65W...WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...18N68W 16N69W 14N70W 13N72W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN. PUNTA CANA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ALMOST ALL OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF DAY TWO. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY...AND THEN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 31N17W...BEYOND 32N24W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE METEO-FRANCE AREAS OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA...ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N30W 26N18W...BEYOND 32N04W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...23N24W 20N39W 15N50W 08N58W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N11W-32N24W COLD FRONT... AND THE 32N63W-20N68W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N47W...TO 26N42W... TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT