000 AXNT20 KNHC 080602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 08 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE FORECAST THAT IS VALID UNTIL 09/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE SECTION THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N18W TO 04N24W 04N33W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W...NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 62W AND 90W... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 98W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 110W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH...AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...SPAN THE REST OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPAN THE AREA. A 1-17 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N89W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... MVFR CONDITIONS...KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND 90W IN GENERAL. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 25N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IN CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...AND IT CONTINUES FROM 17N74W TO 10N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N67W 24N64W 27N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 2.22 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IS JUST A BIT TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST LINE...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HAITI. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N70W 15N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19.5N68W 15N71W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 5000 FEET...VFR...AT 07/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 08/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...THUNDER AND RAIN. LA ROMANA...THUNDER AND RAIN. THE RAIN HAS BEEN HEAVY AT TIMES. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 8000 FEET...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ALMOST ALL OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE START OF DAY TWO. THE WIND FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHERLY...THEN VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 32N20W. THE FRONT CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 32N20W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE METEO-FRANCE AREAS OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA... ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 28N30W 29N14W... BEYOND 32N07W. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...23N24W 20N39W 15N50W 08N58W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N14W-32N20W COLD FRONT... AND THE 32N64W-20N69W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N46W...TO 27N39W 23N32W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT