000
AXNT20 KNHC 071722
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
SECTIONS OF AGADIR AND CASABLANCA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 06N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 00N38W. ISOLATED LIGHT OT MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 19W AND 39W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N93W. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT E. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
10N83W TO 16N76W TO 21N73W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL MOSTLY E OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE N-CENTRAL WATERS AND HISPANIOLA MAINLY N OF
17N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8
INCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY THE OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAINLY ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
ISLAND. DRY AIR AND MODERATE SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN E OF FRONT GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN FAIR
WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE FRESH NE FLOW FROM CUBA
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...        

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
ISLAND DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY W OF
THE ISLAND. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BY THE OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAINLY ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDUCING MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. URBAN FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD
OCCUR DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AND CONSTANT PRECIPITATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         
  
A DRY WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM
22N77W TO 32N70W. TO THE E...A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE ATLANTIC FROM 21N73W
TO 27N69W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N66W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL E OF THE
FRONT AFFECTING THE WATERS BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A 1031
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N47W. EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING WHILE DRIFTING E.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA