000
AXNT20 KNHC 040537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 04 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE TO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 03N16W TO 02N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR
02N25W AND EXTENDS TO 00N30W TO 03N40W TO BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N43W TO 01N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 14W-36W...AND FROM 05N-09N
BETWEEN 43W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO S
OF VERA CRUZ MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 85W-88W.
FURTHER S OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 10-20 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE W OF FRONT. 10-15 KT S FLOW IS E OF FRONT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW THAT WAS OVER FLORIDA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE N BAHAMAS
AND THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N73W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COSTA RICA...W NICARAGUA... W
HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ALSO IN
24 HOURS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA. 

HISPANIOLA...        

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         
       
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA
N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 28N57W TO 23N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N33W. A 1010 MB LOW IS N OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 34N13W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N78W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. MORE
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA