000
AXNT20 KNHC 011748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W
TO 04N21W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO
06N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 04N BETWEEN 07W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 16W AND 34W. 


...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM THE
TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER TO 29N97W. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 28N97W TO 19N96W.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. PATCHY FOG EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE GULF BASIN TODAY. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WITH CONVECTION LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH MON. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 20N66W WITH UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF
70W OVER THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. MAINLY MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE HONDURAS COAST AND OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...        

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE
IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         
       
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N62W TO 28N74W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS BEYOND 31N77W. AN
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N66W SUPPORTS A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 26N58W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N55W THROUGH
THE SURFACE LOW TO 23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
23N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 25N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N38W
...THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 20N40W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE S OF 23N
N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTION WILL
BECOME LIKELY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF N FLORIDA AND S
GEORGIA MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 

LATTO