000 AXNT20 KNHC 281047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 06N15W 03N25W 02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 03W AND 06W...BETWEEN 14W AND 15W ALONG 06N...FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND FROM 07N TO 08N ALONG 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS SUPPORTING A SQUALL LINE THAT IS ALONG 28N85W 32N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N84W 30N83W BEYOND 32N82W...FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 29N77W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 27N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KVAF...AND KEMK. IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KEHC...AND KDLP. MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KVBS...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK... KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIKT... AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON SOUTHWARD...IFR IN VICTORIA AND LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LIFR IN JASPER. LIFR IN HUNTSVILLE. IFR IN CONROE AND TOMBALL. IFR IN HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW IBERIA. IFR IN LAFAYETTE. MVFR IN GALLIANO AND BOOTHVILLE. HEAVY RAIN IN BATON ROUGE. THUNDER IS NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN IN SLIDELL. IFR AND MVFR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LAKE DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. THUNDER IN GULFPORT. THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN IN BILOXI. MVFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR IN GULF SHORES. LIFR AT THE CAIRNS ARMY FIELD IN FORT RUCKER AND IN DOTHAN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN MARIANNA. IFR IN PERRY. ...FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH SPANS THE BAHAMAS... CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES 20N68W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALONG NORTHERN PUERTO RICO 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...MVFR CEILING AT 1600 FEET. PUNTA CANA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE BEEN PART OF THE OBSERVATIONS FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER AND LIGHT RAIN WERE IN THE OBSERVATION A FEW HOURS AGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS NOW...VFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE... AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS HAITI...AND SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N34W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM A 32N29W TRIPLE POINT...TO 28N30W 21N40W 21N44W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N44W TO 21N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 21N55W TO 22N64W AND 20N68W AND 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT FROM 21N40W NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...SAN JUAN...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OTHER ISLANDS THAT ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT