000 AXNT20 KNHC 271740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W- 27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT 27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25 KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS... LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO 23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU BEFORE DISSIPATING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW