000 AXNT20 KNHC 271101 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 09N13W 08N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N15W 04N23W 04N29W TO 02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N SOUTH FROM 15W EASTWARD...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N10W 04N20W 04N30W 05N43W 07N52W 10N60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...AND KDLP. MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI... KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR FROM HARLINGEN WESTWARD IN THE LOWER VALLEY...MVFR TO THE EAST OF HARLINGEN. IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR STATION. LIGHT RAIN IN VICTORIA. HEAVY RAIN IN PORT LAVACA. IFR IN BAY CITY. RAINSHOWERS...SOMETIMES HEAVY...AND THUNDER IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN BILOXI AND GULFPORT. IFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR RIGHT AT THE COAST. LIFR FROM EVERGREEN TO THE CAIRNS AIRFIELD AT FORT RUCKER TO DOTHAN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. IFR IN VALPARAISO AND DESTIN. LIFR IN MARIANNA AND IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. MVFR IN APALACHICOLA. MVFR AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM THE NWS OFFICE IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS. SOME RESIDUAL MULTILAYERED MOISTURE REMAINS AS THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BEGINNING AND ENDING. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO 14N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND DIMINISHING IN THE CENTER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR CEILING. SANTIAGO...MVFR CEILING. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000 FEET...VFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N40W 21N52W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 21N52W TO 19N61W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 19N61W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N26W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W TO 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT