000
AXNT20 KNHC 262331
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N31W
TO 04N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W AND 45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA AND A MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION
AND WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

AN MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE AS A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA FROM 23N72W TO
17N74W. TO THE E...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO FROM 18N69W TO 19N64W. THESE FEATURES
COMBINE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THEIR
ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 74W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
FRONT TO LIFT N AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THIS...CONVECTION IS
STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HISPANIOLA...        

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER HISPANIOLA AT THIS
TIME AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES N OF THE ISLAND AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         
       
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF 55W ANCHORED
BY A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 32N72W. TO THE E...A
996 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N46W WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXTENDING SW ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE
POINT NEAR 32N41W TO 25N45W TO 21N54W THEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THAT POINT TO 18N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS S OF 22N BETWEEN 59W AND
70W AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 34W AND 39W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N
OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA