000 AXNT20 KNHC 261728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND EXTENDS TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N30W TO 05N40W TO 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 08W AND 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH-EASTERLIES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A THERMAL NON-CONVECTIVE SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 18N96W. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE BASIN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF COAST HELPING TO MAINTAIN FRESH RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL MOVE W TO NW TONIGHT SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 19N65W TO 19N72W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORT MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN ONGOING INTERACTION BETWEEN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORTING CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE N OF BERMUDA AND THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OF 1011 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 26N56W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N63W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 992 MB LOW NEAR 32N46W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE E OF THE LOW NEAR 31N42W TO 22N52W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 19N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 57W. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N31W COVERS THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N AND NE OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL DETACH FROM THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUE EAST TO THE E ATLC WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO