000 AXNT20 KNHC 260721 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 UPDATED FOR CLOUD CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...AND THE HISPANIOLA SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1002 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1002 MB LOW CENTER TO 25N50W TO 20N60W...THEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO 20N71W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N46W TO 26N45W TO 23N53W TO 31N49W TO 31N46W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N50W...AND THE RELATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTS. A SEPARATE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N59W AND 25N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W...AND FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN BERMUDA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 09N13W TO 06N15W AND 05N19W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N19W TO 05N34W TO 05N44W AND 04N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 06W AND 12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N20W 05N33W...AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE COAST OF TEXAS...BETWEEN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV. MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS... KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...AND KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER IN THE AREA OF LAKE CHARLES. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE FOR THE REST OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. ALABAMA... MVFR IN GULF SHORES...ON THE VERGE OF RETURNING TO LIFR. THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS BEFORE THE MVFR OBSERVATION WERE SHOWING LIFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR AT THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR PANAMA CITY...AND IN MARIANNA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...AND FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 73W EASTWARD. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD. MOISTURE...RAIN...AND FLOODING HAVE BEEN PRESENT IN PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS AND BULLETINS FROM THE SAN JUAN NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN ESTIMATE OF 0.11 INCHES HAS BEEN REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SINCE 25/1800 UTC. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W NEAR THE BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT CONTINUED MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AT LEAST ON TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA...TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ALSO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI AT 25/2300 UTC...SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... BARAHONA AT 26/0000 UTC...LIGHT RAIN. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA AT 26/0300 UTC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. THUNDER AND RAIN WERE BEING REPORTED DURING EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...VFR. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LAST FEW EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. PUERTO PLATA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...MOVING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO AND IT WILL END UP ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND DURING DAY TWO. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTHWEST WIND EVENTUALLY WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY ONE...AND ON DAY TWO ALSO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING PRACTICALLY ALL OF DAY TWO. SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 22N26W 13N25W AND 10N27W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N32W. A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT