000 AXNT20 KNHC 252341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1004 MB DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N52W IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SEAS OF 8 TO 16 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN AFRICA REACHING THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO 05N33W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 34N75W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION. A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 27N BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE E TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 77W. TO THE E...THE COMBINATION OF A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF HISPANIOLA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO COMBINED WITH AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY PRODUCING URBAN AND FLASH FLOODS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ADJACENT NORTHERN WATERS FROM 20N72W TO 21N67W. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1021 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS W OF 70W. TO THE E...A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N60W.A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N56W TO 25N58W TO 21N65W THEN A S A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 20N72W. SE OF THIS SYSTEM...A 1004 MB DEVELOPING LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION/WINDS/SEAS...CENTERED NEAR 29N52W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SE OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N56W TO 20N64W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE LOW N 22N BETWEEN 39W AND 51W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1017 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 26N39W AND 27N25W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW NEAR 60W TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE ONE ALONG 52W WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA