000 AXNT20 KNHC 251756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 27N54W SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE FROM THE LOW CENTER. SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 1200 UTC TUESDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N17W TO 06N30W TO 04N43W...THEN A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N44W TO 02N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N E OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF...EXCEPT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE SW GULF...FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A COLD FRONT...AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THESE ISLANDS. OTHER PATCHES OF SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA AND THE COASTS OF E HONDURAS...N NICARAGUA...AND THE COAST OF PANAMA. GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY EXCEPT WITHIN 120 NM S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...WHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE AND SOUTHERLY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS COVER HISPANIOLA TODAY AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR ONGOING ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N61W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N59W AND EXTENDS TO 24N62W TO 20N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N58W TO 19N65W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N57W TO 27N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 21N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THE NORTHERN SURFACE TROUGH AS IT IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING INTO A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 27N54W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR 26N37W AND 25N27W ANCHOR RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N26W TO 25N35W SEPARATES THESE TWO HIGH CENTERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 27N...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS S OF 27N. THE DEVELOPING LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 27N54W WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS UNTIL 1200 UTC TUESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THIS NEW LOW OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AS THE LOW MOVES E TO NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO