000 AXNT20 KNHC 250544 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... DEVELOPING GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 15-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 31N57W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 28N57W... WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO 20N65W. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 14 FEET WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 08N16W AND 06N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N19W TO 04N26W 04N37W 03N44W AND 02N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 03N05W...AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 07W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 01N03W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 09W AND 11W...FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 40W AND THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NORTHERN MEXICO 18 HOURS AGO OR SO...NOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KHHV...KGUL...KVBS...KEHC...AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN HARLINGEN. MVFR IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN ROCKPORT. LIGHT RAIN IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN GALVESTON...HOUSTON HOBBY...PEARLAND...IN TOMBALL...AND AT THE HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. IFR IN CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA... NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 20N56W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 25/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...VFR...AT 25/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 25/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS... VFR. PUERTO PLATA...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600 FEET...MVFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST WIND...BECOMING WEST WIND...AND SOUTHWEST WIND. DAY ONE WILL START WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND IT WILL END WITH A TROUGH ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AND IT WILL END UP BEING ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH HAS CLEARED THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND A TROUGH... PROGRESSING TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AFTER THE EARLIER NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF THE DAY. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE START OF DAY TWO. IT WILL BUILD WESTWARD...AGAIN...DURING THE REST OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WITH THE RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W...TO 23N65W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 59W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N64W AND 20N69W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 15 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W... AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE AREAS OF COMPARATIVELY STRONGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN BERMUDA. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N41W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 31N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N28W 27N32W 24N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER RAINSHOWERS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 28W AND 40W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...PASSING THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N26W...TO 20N34. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FROM 27N38W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N48W... TO 20N56W...ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT