000 AXNT20 KNHC 242328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 3N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER S FLORIDA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A SMALL AREA NEAR MERIDA MEXICO ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS AND THE NW GULF FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 92W-98W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. ALSO EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE E TO N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 70W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77W. EXPECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO 23N69W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N62W TO 21N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 54W-62W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AT 29N30W TO 23N40W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 23N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N56W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA