000 AXNT20 KNHC 240557 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N22W TO 04N30W 02N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 27N104W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA OF ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N75W-TO-NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N80W 28N89W 30N92W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THE MOMENT. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LIGHT RAIN IN EDINBURG. NEARBY RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER IN MCALLEN. FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIFR IN PERRY. IFR IN BROOKSVILLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA... THROUGH NORTHERN NICARAGUA...INTO GUATEMALA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N81W 17N82W 14N82W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND...AND FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 4000 FEET...VFR... AT 24/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA... SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTO DOMINGO...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR. SANTIAGO...THUNDER...A CLOUD CEILING AT 2000 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...THUNDER...A CLOUD CEILING AT 8000 FEET...VFR. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF DAY ONE. THE WIND WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT THE START OF DAY ONE...AND THEN IT WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY AND THEN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND IT WILL BE REPLACED BY AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...GIVING THE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO...AS THE EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO- WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF DAY TWO...SENDING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AGAIN AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE RETURNS BY THE END OF DAY TWO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W 25N80W 28N89W 30N92W. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N74W 28N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT ALONG 30N72W 27N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 66W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND 69W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N41W. A 991 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 42N41W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N27W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N27W TO 24N40W 21N50W 20N60W...AND TO 21N71W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 30N45W AND 29N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 30N30W 27N42W 26N67W 24N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...PASSING THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N30W...TO 20N40W AND 19N51W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...ALONG 30N67W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N59W...AND TO 26N45W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT