000 AXNT20 KNHC 232330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 6N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 2N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 25W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N94W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. UPPER LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH RETURN FLOW PRODUCING POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 68W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN... PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 20N82W TO 14N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER JAMAICA...AND E CUBA...FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 74W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF PUERTO RICO. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. EXPECT PRECIPITATION OVER THE SAME AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO 28N77W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 28N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N58W. A VERY LONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AT 31N27W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 21N50W TO 20N60W TO THE S BAHAMAS AT 21N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE NEAR 31N66W. ALSO EXPECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA