000
AXNT20 KNHC 231744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SAT APR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N15W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 03N32W TO 02N46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-04S BETWEEN 23W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 31N96W. TO THE E...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N88W TO 27N82W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS
ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN AT THIS TIME. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
A GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN N OF 25N WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S OF
25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO
DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM
21N72W TO 21N50W...ARE KEEPING THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 18N AND E OF 80W
AFFECTING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. THE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED STORM
TOTALS OF 4-6 INCHES SINCE EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE NE PORTION OF
THE ISLAND. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN...A 1009 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF 12 BETWEEN 67W-80W. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE E AND
FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
WITH THIS...THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL
DIMINISH. 

HISPANIOLA...        

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE ISLAND IS INDUCING SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         
  
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 34N77W
TO 28N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W
AND 76W. TO THE E...A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
28N60W. A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N72W TO 24N41W
THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N28W. CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING NOT ONLY THE ATLANTIC
WATERS BUT THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ALSO. EXPECT FOR A NEW COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. THE FRONTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA