000 AXNT20 KNHC 221731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 5N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 2N40W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST S OF THE THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC NEAR 31N68W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRES LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI TO NEAR 26N91W. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS MAINLY N OF 28N. N UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS THIS FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ALONG 27N SAT AND PASS E OF THE AREA BY SUN. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF BY SAT NIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE NE GULF ON SUN. ALOFT...W-NW WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHILE SW-W WINDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE TO A POSITION NEAR 28N62W BY SAT MORNING. A DEVELOPING LOW PRES NE OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHTER THAN NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE THIS TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH JUST SW OF JAMAICA. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED PER LIGHTING DATA BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL SEA BREEZES AND MOUNTAIN UPSLOPE LIFTING WILL COMBINE WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE NE CARIBBEAN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HISPANIOLA... AVAILABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLAND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N68W EXTENDS A RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS REACHING A POSITION NEAR 28N62W BY SAT MORNING WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N35W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 25N45W TO 23N60W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 24N74W. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE N COAST OF CUBA BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE STATIONARY PART OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE ATLC OCEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH PRES SITUATED NEAR 26N28W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CROSSES ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/ TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC EARLY SAT AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR