000 AXNT20 KNHC 221145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 6N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N28W 1N39W 1N46W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 7W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43W-54W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE N GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 86W-91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 86W TO OVER FLORIDA AND W CUBA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE WEAK TEXAS COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THIS MORNING THEN MOVE OUT OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT AGAIN THIS MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 81W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...AND JAMAICA. HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TODAY. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM DOMINICA TO 15N68W AND WILL DRIFT N TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT. TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH MON. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COULD GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT W OF 60W AND INTO THE FAR E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N38W ALONG 26N44W 23N59W TO 23N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N75W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 22N48W TO 17N57W WHERE A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE DOMINICA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 28N34W TO 20N55W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 20N55W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N30W. THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE E AS THE REMAINDER BECOMES STATIONARY TODAY THEN WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS E THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW WATERS SAT THEN EXTEND FROM 32N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW