000 AXNT20 KNHC 220527 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W 1N43W ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 41W-48W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 88W- 93W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 91W INCLUDING S FLORIDA...CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FAR E GULF ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E-SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING THEN STRETCH ALONG 26N E OF 90W SAT MORNING AND EXIT OUT OF THE GULF BY LATE SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE N/CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SAT THEN SHIFT TO THE NE GULF SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICA/W TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT AGAIN TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N E OF 80W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA. HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 76W-79W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH FRI. AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E TO W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FRI THROUGH SAT. W ATLC SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA FRI THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SUN. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT WHEN THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT W OF 60W AND INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N41W ALONG 24N52W 23N61W TO 23N71W WHERE IT DISSIPATES 26N77W. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SE EXTENDING FROM 24N45W TO 19N51W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N36W TO 21N50W WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N50W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 23N31W. THE N PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE E AS THE REMAINDER BECOMES STATIONARY OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE ACROSS BERMUDA FRI AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SAT. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY SAT THEN EXTEND FROM 32N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW