000 AXNT20 KNHC 211735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND OVER W AFRICA CROSSING LIBERIA. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 5.5N10W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N20W TO 2N30W TO 1N40W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 0N50W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOW NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W AND 28W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS IS A THERMAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE EVENING...THEN DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE DAY AND DISSIPATES LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING AGAIN IN THE EVENING. SOME CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REACHING THE COAST OF TEXAS N OF CORPUS CHRISTI. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI MORNING...STRETCH ALONG 26N E OF 90W ON SAT MORNING AND PASS SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SUN. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTS THIS FRONT. THE GULF REGION IS UNDER A MAINLY WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES REMAINS CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST S OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES THROUGH FRI. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE TOWARDS BERMUDA FRI AND MOVE WELL E OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MON...DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SW-W FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EPAC WATERS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA AND ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH LIKELY EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS NOTED. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLAND. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO THE DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. THIS MOISTURE AND SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 36N72W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC...W OF 65W...AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N48W THEN CONTINUES SW AND W ALONG 27N55W TO 25N65W TO 27N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND 31N78W. BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 60W WHILE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO NEAR 43W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE W OF 65W BY TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS BERMUDA WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVE SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TONIGHT AND FRI WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N25W AND CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 28N30W. FROM THIS POINT...A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR 20N50W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST REGION. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS EARLY SAT EXTENDING FROM 31N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR